Today's Case Germany - results 2003-2013

Published 2014-01-17

Investtech has analysed the German market since year 2000. Since May 2003, our computers have selected Today's Case from among the Dax30 companies and also the broader CDax, and presented the selected stocks to our subscribers.

We have now calculated statistics for this past decade, looking at how the recommendations have performed.

The Data Set

Overall Investtech presented 1,969 positive candidates as the Daily Case on the Dax30 and 2,620 on the CDax in the time period May 2003 to December 2013. The Dax30 Cases are big companies, where 99 percent had an average daily turnover of ten million euros or more. The CDax Cases are more evenly distributed among liquidity classes, with 52 percent above ten million euros, 25 percent between two and ten million euros and 23 percent below two million euros.

About Today's Case from Investtech

Today's Case in Germany is selected entirely automatically by Investtech’s mathematical algorithms. The criteria used are highest possible technical score, based on trend, price formation, volume development and other technical indicators, in addition to satisfactory liquidity. Time horizon for the recommendations is medium term, i.e. one to three months.

Results Dax30

The Dax30 Cases increased by an average of 1.8 percent the first month, which equals 0.7 percent excess return compared to reference index. The Daily Case stocks increased by 4.9 percent the first quarter, which is 1.9 percentage points better than index.

Return Investtech's Daily Case buy recommendation for Dax30 2003 to 2013.

	Number	Day	Week	Month	Quarter
Absolute return	1,969	0.1	0.6	1.8	4.9
Relative to index	1,969	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.9

The table shows absolute and relative return from stocks published as the Daily Case to Investtech’s subscribers in Germany from May 5, 2003, to December 30, 2013. For the newer Cases where prices up to a quarter after publication date are not available, we have estimated the missing prices to equal the last known closing price.

The system also selects negative case candidates, which are the most negative stocks. However, these have not been made available to our subscribers. The negative cases followed the stock exchange relative to index for the first month, but quarterly they fell 0.2 percentage points compared to index.

Results CDax

The CDax Cases increased on average by 1.6 percent the first month, which is 0.5 percentage points more than the reference index. The CDax Case stocks increased by 4.3 percent in the first quarter, which is 1.2 percentage points better than index.

Return Investtech's Daily Case buy recommendation for CDax 2003 to 2013.

	Number	Day	Week	Month	Quarter
Absolute return	2,620	0.1	0.5	1.6	4.3
Relative to index	2,620	0.1	0.3	0.5	1.2

The system also selected negative case candidates for the CDax. The negative cases fell by 0.4 percentage points relative to index the first month and by 0.4 percentage points quarterly.

Keywords: CDax,daily case,Germany,return,statistics.

Written by

Geir Linløkken
Head of Research and Analysis
at Investtech

Where do I find Today's Case from Investtech?

To access Investtech's Daily Case, you must be a subscriber. Log in and select Today's Case from the left hand menu or click the Today's Case teaser on the start page.

On the Today's Case page, the previous ten Daily Cases are listed on the right hand side. Access Today's Case (subscription required).

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Partner & Senior Advisor - Investtech

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