Stockholmsbörsen ned 7,4 % på seks dager. Hva sier statistikken?

Publisert 12.10.2018

Stockholmsbörsen har falt 7,4 % på seks dager. Vi har laget statistikk på hva som har skjedd i dagene og månedene etter tilsvarende fall tidligere.

Vi har sett på tilfeller der Stockholmsbörsen har falt over 6 % på seks dager. Vi har krevd at det må gå minst en måned, 22 dager, mellom hvert tilfelle, slik at ikke etterfølgende dager med store sammenhengende kursfall blir telt med flere ganger.

Siden 1997 har det vært 38 tilfeller der børsen har falt over seks prosent i løpet av seks dager. Kursutviklingen i ettertid var i gjennomsnitt som følger:

første 5 dager: +0,71 %
første 22 dager: -0,81 %
første 66 dager: -0,87 %

 

Det var stor spredning i utfallet. Ser vi på månedsbasis, 22 dager etter fallet, var det fem tilfeller der børsen falt videre med over 10 prosent, og fire tilfeller der den steg videre med over 10 prosent. Figuren under viser antall tilfeller med forskjellig kursutvikling neste 22 dager. De enkelte resultatene vises i tabellen nederst på siden.

Oppsummering: Det har vært 38 tilfeller der Stockholmsbörsen har falt like kraftig som de siste dagene. Det har vært mange store kursutslag både i positiv og negativ retning. Det anses dermed å være sannsynlig at børsen vil svinge kraftig, men det er vanskelig å si i hvilken retning. I gjennomsnitt har imidlertid kursene etter en uke vært litt opp, mens det har vært en liten nedgang etter en og tre måneder.

Basert på tekniske og kvantitative analyser har Investtech en holdanbefaling på Stockholmsbörsen. Her er dagens analyse, gjengitt fra vår morgenrapport:

OMX Stockholm PI föll ännu en dag och är nu strax över det horisontella stödet vid 570 punkter. Ytterligare stödnivåer finns kring 560 och 550 punkter vilket kan begränsa nedgången.

Volymbalans och RSI är svagt negativa. Investtechs kortsiktiga hausseindex (optimistindex) antyder att det råder övervikt av pessimister bland kortsiktiga investerare, medan det är svag övervikt av pessimister bland långsiktiga investerare.

Köpandelen bland insynspersoner den senaste veckan ligger på 74 procent, vilket är i linje med köpandelen de senaste tolv månaderna. Den höga köpandelen är ett sundhetstecken för börsen. Många insynspersoner är dock begränsade att handla aktier inför kommande delårsrapporter vilket medför att antalet köp är relativt få på veckobasis.

Indexet är tekniskt neutralt på medellång sikt.

Tilfeller der Stockholmsbörsen har falt minst 6% på seks dager og utvikling kommende 22 dager:
1: 19971027 175.68 -7.60%, next 22 days:  3.61%
2: 19980616 227.71 -6.18%, next 22 days: 10.48%
3: 19980728 236.35 -6.22%, next 22 days: -12.58%
4: 19981215 197.26 -6.06%, next 22 days:  8.40%
5: 20000315 426.66 -7.81%, next 22 days: -9.43%
6: 20000922 387.87 -6.18%, next 22 days: -6.73%
7: 20001113 341.86 -7.29%, next 22 days:  2.62%
8: 20001220 326.30 -8.50%, next 22 days:  4.93%
9: 20010209 318.59 -7.22%, next 22 days: -13.90%
10: 20010613 282.56 -6.72%, next 22 days: -6.49%
11: 20010904 252.11 -6.20%, next 22 days: -8.60%
12: 20011214 263.73 -6.32%, next 22 days: -3.15%
13: 20020424 239.04 -9.39%, next 22 days: -3.04%
14: 20020624 196.43 -8.20%, next 22 days: -15.30%
15: 20020830 178.29 -6.36%, next 22 days: -14.16%
16: 20021218 170.93 -6.21%, next 22 days: -6.02%
17: 20030930 199.54 -6.25%, next 22 days: 10.34%
18: 20060517 387.20 -9.32%, next 22 days: -4.20%
19: 20060718 358.89 -6.38%, next 22 days:  9.72%
20: 20070305 463.54 -6.07%, next 22 days:  8.97%
21: 20070727 507.26 -6.95%, next 22 days: -3.77%
22: 20071019 485.50 -7.57%, next 22 days: -8.82%
23: 20071121 433.64 -6.17%, next 22 days:  3.02%
24: 20080611 400.80 -6.51%, next 22 days: -11.61%
25: 20080819 360.28 -6.52%, next 22 days: -8.12%
26: 20090114 260.65 -10.10%, next 22 days:  9.07%
27: 20090223 259.41 -8.75%, next 22 days:  6.15%
28: 20090622 325.02 -6.50%, next 22 days: 12.39%
29: 20100507 420.78 -10.21%, next 22 days:  5.37%
30: 20100701 434.63 -7.49%, next 22 days:  9.17%
31: 20110613 503.92 -6.30%, next 22 days:  0.72%
32: 20110802 468.52 -6.96%, next 22 days: -5.44%
33: 20111121 413.67 -7.44%, next 22 days:  6.02%
34: 20150506 851.83 -7.58%, next 22 days:  0.39%
35: 20150821 807.23 -6.20%, next 22 days: -4.06%
36: 20151210 798.06 -6.07%, next 22 days: -9.56%
37: 20160616 746.07 -6.38%, next 22 days:  7.49%
38: 20180206 933.92 -6.05%, next 22 days:  5.19%
Mean: -7,11%, next 22 days:  -0,81%

 

Written by

Geir Linløkken
Head of Research and Analysis
at Investtech

"Investtech analyses the psychology of the market and gives concrete trading suggestions every day."

Espen Grønstad
Partner & Senior Advisor - Investtech
 


Investtech guarantees neither the entirety nor accuracy of the analyses. Any consequent exposure related to the advice / signals which emerge in the analyses is completely and entirely at the investors own expense and risk. Investtech is not responsible for any loss, either directly or indirectly, which arises as a result of the use of Investtechs analyses. Details of any arising conflicts of interest will always appear in the investment recommendations. Further information about Investtechs analyses can be found here disclaimer. The content provided by Investtech.com is NOT SEC or FSA regulated and is therefore not intended for US or UK consumers.


Investtech guarantees neither the entirety nor accuracy of the analyses. Any consequent exposure related to the advice / signals which emerge in the analyses is completely and entirely at the investors own expense and risk. Investtech is not responsible for any loss, either directly or indirectly, which arises as a result of the use of Investtechs analyses. Details of any arising conflicts of interest will always appear in the investment recommendations. Further information about Investtechs analyses can be found here disclaimer. The content provided by Investtech.com is NOT SEC or FSA regulated and is therefore not intended for US or UK consumers.

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