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Publisert 17.03.2020
Børsene i Norge, Sverige og Danmark er ned henholdsvis 33, 32 og 26 prosent siden toppen tidligere i år. Hva har skjedd i lignende situasjoner tidligere, og hvor står børsen ett og to år fram i tid?
Vi har sett hva som har skjedd når de skandinaviske børsene tidligere har falt like mye. Her er statistikken:
Fall i OSEBX på minst 30% i løpet av 66 dager og minst 66 dager siden forrige store fall.
1: 19871109 37.18 fall -32.55%, next 22 days: -3.36%, next 250 days: 12.86%, next 500 days: 106.75% 2: 19920824 44.51 fall -32.47%, next 22 days: 8.29%, next 250 days: 80.18%, next 500 days: 110.36% 3: 19980921 126.55 fall -31.07%, next 22 days: 4.95%, next 250 days: 44.56%, next 500 days: 84.65% 4: 20010921 134.06 fall -30.36%, next 22 days: 10.49%, next 250 days: -19.08%, next 500 days: 11.20% 5: 20080916 333.58 fall -32.44%, next 22 days:-32.23%, next 250 days: -2.90%, next 500 days: 12.31% Mean: -31.78%, next 22 days: -2.37%, next 250 days: 23.12%, next 500 days: 65.06%
Fall i OMXSBGI på minst 30% i løpet av 66 dager og minst 66 dager siden forrige store fall.
1: 19981005 164.18 fall -32.93%, next 22 days: 21.45%, next 250 days: 57.21%, next 500 days: 131.40% 2: 20020722 179.80 fall -30.29%, next 22 days: 5.89%, next 250 days: 8.44%, next 500 days: 39.58% 3: 20081024 248.66 fall -31.78%, next 22 days: 5.64%, next 250 days: 59.11%, next 500 days: 98.10% Mean: -31.67%, next 22 days: 10.99%, next 250 days: 41.59%, next 500 days: 89.69%
Fall i OMXC25GI på minst 25% i løpet av 66 dager og minst 66 dager siden forrige store fall.
1: 19981008 200.43 fall -25.12%, next 22 days: 12.79%, next 250 days: 19.34%, next 500 days: 93.92% 2: 20080121 421.35 fall -26.05%, next 22 days: 12.03%, next 250 days:-34.19%, next 500 days: -9.39% 3: 20081008 322.31 fall -25.64%, next 22 days: -3.70%, next 250 days: 14.93%, next 500 days: 43.66% 4: 20110822 379.96 fall -25.49%, next 22 days: 1.24%, next 250 days: 33.38%, next 500 days: 61.09% Mean: -25.57%, next 22 days: 5.59%, next 250 days: 8.37%, next 500 days: 47.32%
Etter mandagens fall er Investtechs kortsiktige hausseindekser for børsene i Norge, Sverige og Danmark er henholdsvis 6, 4 og 4 poeng. Det indikerer at vi kan stå nær en langsiktig bunn i markedet. Vi kommer tilbake med en utvidet analyse i morgen eller torsdag.
Keywords: Hausse.
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Investtech guarantees neither the entirety nor accuracy of the analyses. Any consequent exposure related to the advice / signals which emerge in the analyses is completely and entirely at the investors own expense and risk. Investtech is not responsible for any loss, either directly or indirectly, which arises as a result of the use of Investtechs analyses. Details of any arising conflicts of interest will always appear in the investment recommendations. Further information about Investtechs analyses can be found here disclaimer.
The content provided by Investtech.com is NOT SEC or FSA regulated and is therefore not intended for US or UK consumers.