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Investtech Indices
Norsk Hydro (NHY.OL)
Close: 56.50 (+1.02), Apr 25, 2025
Complete report
Algorithmic Overall Analysis
Positive (Score: 77)
Apr 25, 2025. Updated daily.
Analyst's Recommendation
Negative
Apr 15, 2025. 11 days ago.
Analyses
Short
Medium
Long
Overall
Insider
Investor Psychology - Behavioural Finance - Quantitative Analysis - Scientific Methods
Technical Analysis - Insider Trades - Seasonal Variations - Intraday Trading
Stock data
| Price date | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Currency | NOK |
| ISIN | NO0005052605 |
| Rise from year low | 8.99% |
| Fall from year high | -22.09% |
Automatic technical analysis. Short term
Short term
Norsk Hydro has broken the ceiling of the falling trend in the short term, which indicates a slower initial falling rate. The stock has support at kroner 52.00 and resistance at kroner 62.40. The stock is assessed as technically neutral for the short term.Recommendation one to six weeks: Hold (Score: -8)
Automatic technical analysis. Medium term
Medium term
Norsk Hydro has broken the floor of the rising trend channel in the medium long term, which indicates a weaker initial rising rate. The stock has broken up through resistance at kroner 55.20. This predicts a further rise. In case of negative reactions, there will now be support at kroner 55.20. The short term momentum of the stock is strongly negative, with RSI below 30. This indicates increasing pessimism among investors and further decline for Norsk Hydro. However, particularly in big stocks, low RSI may be a sign that the stock is oversold and that there is a chance for a reaction upwards. The stock is overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.Recommendation one to six months: Positive (Score: 82)
Automatic technical analysis. Long term
Long term
Investors have paid higher prices over time to buy Norsk Hydro and the stock is in a rising trend channel in the long term. Rising trends indicate that the company experiences positive development and that buy interest among investors is increasing. The price has reacted back after a false break of the rectangle formation. A significant penetration of 54.89 will again give new negative signals to the stock, while a break of the opposite side of the formation will be a strong positive signal. The stock has marginally broken up through resistance at kroner 56.00. An established break predicts a further rise. The stock is overall assessed as technically positive for the long term.Recommendation one to six quarters: Positive (Score: 55)
Full history
Candlesticks 95 days
Candlesticks 22 days
Insider Trades
Insider trades reported last 18 months. The stock is slightly positive on Insider Trades.
| Date | Type | Count | Price | Value | Percent | Controlled | Text | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2025 | kjøp | 1000 | 66.99 | 66 | 100 | 1000 | Styremedlem Jane Toogood kjøper 1000 | 65 |
| Jul 24, 2024 | kjøp | 6200 | 61.42 | 380 | 23 | 26700 | Styremedlem Rune Bjerke kjøper 6200 | 91 |
| Jun 3, 2024 | kjøp | 6800 | 69.34 | 471 | 68 | 10000 | Styremedlem Espen Gundersen kjøper 6800 | 100 |
Commentaries
Automatic technical analysis of the stock, based on last closing price. The chart may have changed since the analyst's recommendation was written.
Analyst's Recommendation
Apr 15, 2025 (11 days ago)Kari Poblete
info@investtech.com
Recommendation one to six months: Negative
Kari Poblete, Apr 15, 2025 (price 54.06)
Norsk Hydro ligger i en tilnærmet horisontal trendkanal på mellomlang sikt og videre utvikling i samme retning indikeres. Aksjen ga imidlertid salgssignal fra en rektangelformasjon ved bruddet ned gjennom støtten ved 55.75 kroner. Videre nedgang til 44.14 kroner eller lavere er signalisert.Aksjen har også gitt salgssignal fra glidende snitt-indikatoren og nærmer seg motstanden ved cirka 55.20 kroner, noe som også kan gi en reaksjon ned. Det kortsiktige momentumet i aksjen er sterkt negativt, med RSI under 30. Det indikerer økende pessimisme hos investorene og videre kursnedgang for Norsk Hydro. Spesielt i store aksjer kan imidlertid lav RSI være tegn på at aksjen er oversolgt, og at det er mulighet for en reaksjon opp. Aksjen anses samlet sett teknisk negativ på mellomlang sikt. Norsk Hydro er positiv på innsidehandler etter ett kjøp i mars.
Recommendation one to six months: Negative
Published: Morning Report (Apr 15, 2025 07:40) [KP]
The analysis is written by Investtech's analyst on the given date based on the price charts of this date. The analysis is meant to be valid for a few weeks, up to a few months. Later price developments may indicate changes in the market and investor optimism, and render the analysis outdated. Investtech's automatic analyses, updated daily, will often reflect such changes.
Previous recommendations
Fredrik Dahl Bråten, Mar 23, 2025 (price 66.08)
Norsk Hydro har siden våren 2022 slitt med å bryte opp gjennom motstanden ved 73 kroner. Kursen har nærmet seg nivået en rekke ganger, for så å vende ned igjen. Flere investorer anser trolig aksjen her som dyr, og vil selge om kursen skulle stige opp til motstanden igjen. Bryter aksjen derimot opp gjennom nivået vil kursen kunne stige raskt videre, siden de fleste som ønsker å selge aksjen statistisk da allerede har solgt. Kjøperne av aksjen kan da uten motstand drive prisen raskt oppover. Kursen har etablert seg innenfor en rektangelformasjon på lang sikt og har beveget seg horisontalt i flere år. Brudd opp vil utløse et kjøpssignal for Norsk Hydro, men tilsvarende vil brudd ned under 56 kroner utløse et salgssignal.
Recommendation one to six months: NeutralPublished: Morning Report (Mar 23, 2025 23:10) [FDB]
Kari Poblete, Jan 14, 2025 (price 65.32)
Investorene har over tid betalt stadig høyere priser for å kjøpe seg opp i Norsk Hydro og aksjen ligger i en stigende trendkanal på mellomlang sikt.
Aksjen beveger seg i en rektangelformasjon mellom støtte på 55.02 kroner og motstand på 73.24 kroner. Etablert brudd på et av disse nivåene vil signalisere videre retning. Negativ volumbalanse viser at volumet er høyere på nedgangsdager enn på oppgangsdager. Det indikerer at optimismen er avtagende hos investorene. Aksjen anses samlet sett teknisk nøytral på mellomlang sikt.
Published: Morning Report (Jan 14, 2025 08:09) [KP]
Analysts' recommendations last 18 months
Positive/Weak Positive
Neutral
Negative/Weak Negative
History of Investtech's analysts' analyses of the stock. Analyses are shown by coloured dots on the day the analysis was based on.
| Evaluation | Time horizon | Price | Published | Analyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Negative | Medium term | 54.06 | Apr 15, 2025 07:40, Morning Report | KP |
 Neutral | Medium term | 66.08 | Mar 23, 2025 23:10, Morning Report | FDB |
| Neutral | Medium term | 65.32 | Jan 14, 2025 08:09, Morning Report | KP |
 Weak Positive | Short term | 65.58 | Sep 24, 2024 19:42, e24 | FDB |
| Weak Positive | Medium term | 65.58 | Sep 24, 2024 19:37, Morning Report | FDB |
 Positive | Medium term | 59.66 | Aug 21, 2024 15:36, e24 | AT |
| Weak Positive | Medium term | 66.48 | Jul 16, 2024 08:38, Morning Report | GL |
| Negative | Medium term | 56.16 | Feb 25, 2024 18:23, Morning Report | FDB |
 Weak Negative | Medium term | 65.50 | Jan 12, 2024 07:47, Stay Away Portfolio | GL |
| Negative | Medium term | 62.78 | Dec 1, 2023 08:21, Stay Away Portfolio, e24 | GL |
| Negative | Medium term | 63.06 | Nov 29, 2023 23:33, Morning Report | FDB |
| Negative | Medium term | 62.34 | Oct 17, 2023 10:32, Morning Report, Today´s Case | KP |
AT: Asbjørn Taugbøl (Analyst)
FDB: Fredrik Dahl Bråten (Analyst)
GL: Geir Linløkken (Head of Analyses)
KP: Kari Poblete (Analyst)
Results analysis
Average price development
Results publications in price chart
Results publications last 18 months
| Percentage change days before publication | Percentage change days after publication | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Publication date | Description | 22 d | 10 d | 5 d | 1 day | Publication | 1 day | 5 d | 10 d | 22 d |
| Average last 5 results publications | 3.35 | -2.04 | -2.99 | -0.55 | -1.97 | 0.80 | -0.10 | -0.58 | 3.93 | |
| Average last 20 results publications | 1.44 | 0.42 | -0.88 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 0.17 | 0.90 | 1.41 | 6.91 | |
Seasonal variations
Seasonal prediction from today's date
The blue line shows average price development the past 10 years, in the period from three months before to six months after today's date. The black line is actual price development in the past three months. Shaded areas are one and two standard deviations.
Monthly and annual statistics
Average development per month, last 10 years
Average development throughout the year, last 10 years
Annual development from 2015 to 2024
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Trading limits
Average price development quarter by quarter past 66 trading days
Estimated price today
| Opening | 55.42 |
| High | 55.79 |
| Low | 55.05 |
| Close | 55.34 |
| Opening to high | 0.67% |
| Opening to low | -0.67% |
| Opening to close | -0.14% |
Early warning
| Close prices next day that when broken will generate new signals |  | |
|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Price | Objective |
| Moving average | 149.64 | - |
| High-RSI | 90.19 | - |
| Long Term Trading Range | 71.48 | - |
| Short Term Trading Range | 69.46 | - |
| Low-RSI | 56.52 | - |
| Last close | 56.50 | - |
| Indicator: | Type of indicator generating the signal | |
| Price: | If close price next day has crossed this value, a technical signal is created | |
| Objective: | Price target for the positive or negative signal (Only listed for patterns) | |
Alerts
| Date | Price | Trading opportunity | Time span | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2025 | 56.50 | Oversold, close to sup | Medium term | 64.25 - 67.75 |
Key ratios
Dividend yield: 3.6%
P/E: 22.1
P/S: 0.5
P/B: 1.0
Dividend per share: 2.21
Earnings per share: 2.51
Revenue per share: 101.36
Book value per share: 53.48
Market cap million NOK: 111 460.
De siste nøkkeltallene er beregnet ut fra delårsrapportene siste 12 måneder og sluttkurs 55.48 fra Apr 24, 2025.
Financial data
| MNOK | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 87 694 | 81 953 | 109 220 | 159 377 | 149 766 | 138 118 | 149 654 | 207 929 | 193 619 | 203 636 |
| Profit for the year | 2 333 | 6 586 | 9 184 | 4 480 | -1 811 | 3 560 | 13 942 | 24 417 | 2 804 | 5 040 |
| Profit margin | 2.7 % | 8.0 % | 8.4 % | 2.8 % | -1.2 % | 2.6 % | 9.3 % | 11.7 % | 1.4 % | 2.5 % |
| Book value | 74 170 | 81 907 | 87 074 | 85 990 | 79 933 | 76 179 | 84 064 | 107 798 | 107 182 | 107 452 |
| Equity ratio | 64.7 % | 67.0 % | 56.5 % | 56.2 % | 51.1 % | 47.7 % | 50.6 % | 54.3 % | 51.9 % | 51.8 % |
| Revenue per share | 42.97 | 40.13 | 53.43 | 77.90 | 73.16 | 67.44 | 72.33 | 100.50 | 93.58 | 103.02 |
| Book value per share | 36.34 | 40.11 | 42.60 | 42.03 | 39.05 | 37.20 | 40.63 | 52.10 | 51.80 | 54.36 |
| Earnings per share | 1.16 | 3.28 | 4.57 | 2.23 | -0.90 | 1.77 | 6.94 | 12.15 | 1.40 | 2.51 |
| Dividend per share | 1.02 | 1.27 | 1.78 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 5.56 | 5.82 | 2.57 | 2.21 |
| Dividend payout | 89 % | 39 % | 40 % | 58 % | -144 % | 73 % | 83 % | 49 % | 190 % | 87 % |
Dividend yield
Dividend yield is the company's share dividend in relation to the share price. It is a measure of return to shareholders. Dividend yield is calculated as Dividend per share/Share price.
Dividend yield for NHY is 3.6%.
Dividend yield for NHY is 3.6%.
P/E - price/earnings
P/E stands for Price/Earnings, that is, share price in relation to the earnings per share. The key figures are used when assessing a share price in relation to the company's profit. Example: A P/E number of 10 means that the share costs 10 times the company's annual profit. P/E is calculated as Share price/Earnings after tax per share.
P/E for NHY is 22.1.
P/E for NHY is 22.1.
P/S - price/sales
P/S stands for Price/Sales, that is price relative to sales. The key figures are used when evaluating a share price in relation to the company's sales. Example: A P/S number of 2.0 means that the stock costs 2.0 times the company's annual turnover. P/S is calculated as Share price/Revenue per share.
P/S for NHY is 0.5.
P/S for NHY is 0.5.
P/B - price/book
P/B stands for Price/BookValue, that is price relative to equity. The key figures are used when evaluating a share price in relation to book equity. Example: A P/B figure of 1.8 means that the share costs 1.8 times the company's equity. P/B is calculated as Share price/Equity per share
P/B for NHY is 1.0.
P/B for NHY is 1.0.
Help and information - Research shows the importance of Trend, Momentum and Volume
Investtech’s analyses focus on a stock’s trend status, short term momentum and volume development. These are central topics of technical analysis theory that describe changes in investor optimism or fluctuations in a company’s financial development. However, Investtech’s strong focus on these elements is due to research results that clearly indicate causation between these factors and future return on the stock market.
Trend
Theory: Stocks in rising trends will continue to rise.
Psychology/economy: Rising trends indicate that the company experiences positive development and increasing buy interest among investors. Read more
Research: Stocks in rising trend channels in Investtech’s medium long term charts have been followed by an annualized excess return of 7.8 percentage points compared to average benchmark development. This is shown by Investtech’s research into 34,880 cases of stocks in rising trends on the Nordic Stock Exchanges in the period 1996 to 2015.
Read more about the research results here
Momentum
Theory: Stocks with rising short term momentum will continue to rise. Stocks with very strong momentum (overbought) will react backwards.
Psychology/economy: RSI above 70 shows strong positive momentum. The stock has risen in the short term without any significant reactions downwards. Investors have kept paying more to buy stocks. This indicates that more investors want to buy the stock and that the price will continue to rise. Read more
Research: Stocks with strong momentum have on average continued to rise, and more so than the average stock listed on the Exchange. This is shown by Investtech’s research into 24,208 cases of stocks on the Nordic Stock Exchanges in the period 1996 to 2015 where RSI went above 70 points, indicating strong and increasing short term momentum. On average, annualized, the stocks rose the equivalent of 11.4 percentage points more than the average stock.
Read the research report here
Volume
Theory: Rising prices on high volume and falling prices on low volume indicate strength in a stock. Volume can confirm a rising trend or signal that a falling trend is ending.
Psychology/economy: When investors very much want to buy a stock, they have to increase the price to find new sellers. Rising price on high volume shows that some investors are so aggressive that they push the price up to be able to buy the stock. Investtech’s Volume Balance tool measures the relation between price rise and volume and measures investor aggression at rising and falling prices. Read more
Research: Stocks with volume balance above 40 have been followed by an average annual return of 4.7 percentage points on the Nordic Stock Exchanges, shown by research conducted by Investtech into 24,580 cases.
Read the research report here
Investtech's analyses
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