Nøytralt markedssyn for Oslo Børs

Publisert 05.02.2016

Hovedindeksen på Oslo Børs ligger mellom motstand ved 556 poeng og støtte ved 533-537 poeng. Et brudd opp gjennom motstanden vil være et positivt signal, mens en reaksjon ned gjennom støtten vil være et negativt signal.

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Den kortsiktige hausseindeksen har mer enn doblet seg fra 17 til 35 poeng i løpet av de siste par ukene. Dette indikerer at optimismen har økt kraftig blant de kortsiktige investorene på Oslo Børs. Så lenge indeksen er klart under 50 indikeres det likevel at det er en klar overvekt av pessimister. Også de langsiktige investorene synes overveiende å være pessimister, med en hausseindeks såpass lavt som 32 poeng.

 

 

Det er liten aktivitet blant innsiderne i påvente av at mange selskaper skal rapportere resultater for fjerde kvartal. Den siste måneden er det rapportert bare 35 innsidehandler, med en kjøpsandel på 74 prosent. De fleste innsidere som handler, viser dermed optimisme og tro på kursoppgang for egne selskaper; innsiderne anser selskapene sine som fundamentalt billige.

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Siden 1983 har Oslo Børs i gjennomsnitt steget 1,7 prosent i februar, 2,3 prosent i mars og samlet nesten 11 prosent fra nyttår og fram til begynnelsen av juni. Vinteren og våren har historisk i gjennomsnitt vært en klart positiv periode på Oslo Børs.

 

 

Konklusjon: Hovedindeksen er nøytral på mellomlang sikt (1-6 måneder). Brudd over 556 vil gi et positivt skift, mens brudd under 533 vil gi et negativt skift.

 

Written by

Geir Linløkken
Head of Research and Analysis
at Investtech

Nyhetsarkiv

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"Investtech analyses the psychology of the market and gives concrete trading suggestions every day."

Espen Grønstad
Partner & Senior Advisor - Investtech
 


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Investtech guarantees neither the entirety nor accuracy of the analyses. Any consequent exposure related to the advice / signals which emerge in the analyses is completely and entirely at the investors own expense and risk. Investtech is not responsible for any loss, either directly or indirectly, which arises as a result of the use of Investtechs analyses. Details of any arising conflicts of interest will always appear in the investment recommendations. Further information about Investtechs analyses can be found here disclaimer. The content provided by Investtech.com is NOT SEC or FSA regulated and is therefore not intended for US or UK consumers.

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